Stefano Chiarini, September 13, 2000

In the Hands of Saddam

Together with the failure of the Camp David accords and with the end of the isolation of Iraq, which hapened with the Baghdad visit of the Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the US has started to warm up the motors of their bombers and to spread improbable rumors about the worsening health of Saddam Hussein. In reality, what is in crisis is the Middle East policy of the U.S., the Oslo strategy, which was stopped by the unexpected no of Arafat. The card castle has fallen, so the US must distract their citizens' attention from the Palestinian/Golan issue. What better strategy than to drag out the big bad wolf, Saddam Hussein who threatens the US interest in the region [US = little Red Riding Hood]? The US policy of sanctions Iraq, even if it killed one and a half million innocent people, has not succeeded to in bringing down the regime, even if we concede that this was its aim, which is doubtful.

This policy is now contested by the Gulf nations, with the exception of Kuwait, and partially by Saudi Arabia. The situation has been accerated by the rise in oil prices. Iraq exports 2 to 3 million barrels of oil per day, and any increase in their production is prevented by the US/British veto on the importation of parts which the Iraqi oil industry needs.

Here is the deep contrdiction of the US policy: a drastic reduction in the world price of oil is only possible by increasing Iraqi exports. Saudi Arabia has a foreign debt of $140 billion dollars and can only produce 2.5 milllion barrels of oil per day, not enough to satisfy the international market and bring down the price. Moreover, in order to ramify such increases it would suffice for Iraq to cut even a little of its production. Thanks to the clever policy of Clinton we have the fact that the much vaunted new economy is actually in the hands of Saddam Hussein.

At this point Iraq will obviously negotiate the end of the embargo in exchange for oil. The US president will have to decide whether to concede the failure of its policy or start a new war, sending Turks north and marines south.