> RIA Novosti - Moscow Diary

> December 26, 2000

> RUSSIA, USA: TO NEW CENTURY WITH NEW LEADERS

> > Professor Alexei BOGATUROV, deputy director of the > Institute of USA and Canada Studies of the Russian Academy of > Sciences

> > The outgoing year marked a threshold in Russia-USA > relations. Leaders were replaced in both countries as a result > of the presidential elections. Russian President Vladimir Putin > has been running the country for almost a year while George > Bush is just preparing to replace US President Bill Clinton. > The two leaders will start dialogue next year. Either a new > model of Russian-US relations will be formed or the old model > will be transferred to a new level.

> It became clear in the past year that both Russia and the > United States started to put more emphasis on priorities in > national interests. In other words, egocentric tendencies have > emerged in their foreign policies. The outgoing US > Administration and first Russian President Boris Yeltsin > proclaimed worldwide solidarity that did not exist in reality. > They pledged adherence to common values and almost > internationalism. Both Bush and Putin have made national > interests the cornerstone of their policies and are not going > to conceal it.

> Political scientists said that such foreign policy > direction would trigger a "head-on collision" between the two > leaders and hinder bilateral ties. These apprehensions seem > groundless.

> Quite the contrary, it would be easier for the two relatively > young politicians to follow a similar logic and understand each > other's motivation. They are likely to reach a consensus. > Russia and the United States did not conclude specific > agreements this year. However, the Russian parliament ratified > the START-2 Treaty. It became a major step in limiting > strategic offensive weapons. Considerable difficulties have > obstructed the conclusion of the new agreement (START-3). It > envisions the lowering of the nuclear arms' ceiling to > 1,500-2,000 warheads.

> The main problem is Washington's intention to deploy the > national missile defense system that would violate the 1972 ABM > Treaty.

> Russian officials insist that it would make sense to conclude > the START-3 Treaty if the ABM Treaty is strictly complied with. > The ABM Treaty was concluded in Moscow and serves as a > foundation for strategic stability and security.

> The Clinton Administration planned to start the deployment > of the national missile defense system in 2000. It alleged > without grounds that Iran, North Korea and a few other > countries posed a nuclear and missile threat. However, the > United States did not go ahead with the plan due to Moscow's > extremely negative reaction and lack of support from its > allies. The Bush Administration will have to deal with this > problem. George Bush reiterated his support for the national > missile defense program during the electoral campaign. However, > campaign promises are one thing and real politics is another. > It's hard to say what the new US president will do given his > awareness of an unavoidable aggravation in relations with > Russia if the system is deployed.

> Washington could not help but notice the fact that Moscow > has pursued a more precise and consistent policy since Putin > came to power. The Kremlin demonstrated its readiness to start > constructive dialogue with the White House. However, it will > not ignore sharp differences or tone down contradictions or > make unreasonable concessions as it happened in the early > nineties.

> The Moscow-NATO relations that are in effect part of the > Russian-US ties have proved this. Moscow expressed principled > disagreement with NATO's actions in the Balkans and its > association with the Albanian extremists. Russia has warned of > the risks involving NATO's eastward expansion. Nevertheless, > the Russian leadership has made considerable efforts to > normalize relations with NATO and resume contacts this year. > Putin and NATO Secretary General George Robertson held talks in > Moscow.

> Russia's economic revival boosted its confidence in > dialogue with Washington. While the United States has been > enjoying a continuous economic growth for the eighth year, a > tendency for an industrial growth has just emerged in Russia. > It raised hope in Russians that they had left the worst behind, > in the outgoing century.

> George Bush will probably have to continue repairing the > American home that Bill Clinton promised to strengthen. Putin > is busy overhauling the far from perfect state mechanism in > Russia.

> Better bilateral relations could help both countries resolve > their domestic problems and work together for the sake of peace. > Moscow is optimistic about the future. It hopes to obtain > US financial assistance provided Washington understands that > Russia will not sacrifice its national interests for US or any > other loans. The two countries are faced with similar tasks in > their foreign and domestic policies.

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